What does this mean for the Pacific?
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that changes weather across the Pacific. Normally, winds push warm ocean water towards countries such as Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Indonesia. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing warmer water to spread east towards South America.
El Niño occurs roughly every 2–7 years and often lasts 9–18 months. El Niño can bring prolonged dry conditions, water shortages and hotter weather to countries such as Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa, while other Pacific countries, including Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands, may experience heavier rainfall and increased flooding risks.
An exceptionally strong event is sometimes called a Super El Niño. This is an informal term, but it helps describe how unusually warm ocean temperatures can disrupt weather patterns across the Pacific. This is what we are in at the moment.
According to Earth Sciences New Zealand, there is a 100% forecast probability that El Niño conditions will continue through December 2026–February 2027. It could become one of the strongest events on record (going beyond the intensity of that seen in 2015/2016).
Why does this matter?
During the powerful 2015–2016 El Niño, Pacific communities experienced severe drought, water shortages, crop losses and food insecurity. Fiji was also devastated by Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston in February 2016. While El Niño did not directly cause Winston, it can influence where tropical cyclones develop and travel.
The 2026–2027 forecasts are again raising concerns. Unusually dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest Pacific, including Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa.
The region is also entering tropical cyclone season. Although El Niño can shift cyclone activity towards the central and eastern Southwest Pacific, damaging cyclones remain possible elsewhere.
What is already happening?
The impacts are no longer just forecasts.
In Papua New Guinea, severe drought, water shortages and damaging frosts have affected communities and food production. Falling river levels are also making transport and access to water more difficult.
Solomon Islands is experiencing drought, food insecurity and water stress, particularly in Malaita and Western Province. In Vanuatu, severe water shortages have prompted emergency water deliveries and filtration support.
Fiji is facing growing pressure on groundwater supplies, agriculture and livestock. Samoa is experiencing dry conditions that raise concerns about water availability and wildfire risk, although no confirmed humanitarian impacts had been reported by OCHA as of 9 October.
New Zealand may also experience drier conditions in some northern and eastern areas, while other regions could become wetter.
These impacts will not be the same everywhere. But for communities that rely on rainwater, local food gardens and farming, prolonged dry conditions can quickly become a serious challenge.
What are the forecasts telling us?
The 2026–2027 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook indicates:
- 7–11 named tropical cyclones are forecast across the region between November 2026 and April 2027.
- At least four cyclones could become severe, reaching Category 3 or higher.
- Higher cyclone risk is expected near and east of the International Date Line, affecting parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
- Normal to reduced cyclone risk is expected in parts of the western Southwest Pacific, but destructive cyclones remain possible.
What does this mean for Pacific communities?
Even one severe cyclone can cause widespread damage to homes, crops, water supplies, roads and essential services.
For communities already experiencing drought, a cyclone could bring additional challenges. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding and contaminate drinking water, while strong winds can damage crops and infrastructure.
This is why preparing for El Niño means preparing for both prolonged dry conditions and the possibility of destructive cyclones.
Families and communities should review their emergency plans, secure homes and water supplies, prepare essential items and follow updates from their national meteorological and disaster management authorities.
Why early action matters
El Niño gives us something valuable: time to prepare.
Climate forecasts can provide early warnings before conditions become severe. Communities, governments and humanitarian organisations can use this time to protect drinking water supplies, prepare emergency stocks, support food production and strengthen local response plans.
Acting early is especially important for remote communities, where access to water, food and essential services may already be limited.
Three things to remember
- The impacts are already being felt. Drought, water shortages and pressure on food production are affecting several Pacific countries, with further dry conditions forecast.
- Water and food security must be priorities. Protecting safe drinking water and local food supplies can help communities cope with prolonged dry conditions.
- Prepare for drought and cyclones — not just one or the other. El Niño can bring prolonged dry conditions while also changing cyclone risks across the Pacific. Communities should prepare for water shortages, protect food supplies, strengthen homes and ensure emergency plans and essential supplies are ready. Acting early can reduce the impacts of both hazards.
